Brazil's Municipal Elections and Future Implications

On Sunday, October 27, several Brazilian cities will hold the second round of municipal elections, with a particular focus on São Paulo. This electoral process is not solely about local mayorships; it serves as a litmus test for the 2026 elections. The political contest is especially prominent among supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro and candidates from centrist and leftist parties. Bolsonaro has been vocal in criticizing judicial interventions in elections and raises concerns about impartiality in approving operations against political allies, showcasing a growing dissatisfaction among his voter base. While the 2023 elections could pave the way for new political figures, such as Ronaldo Caiado, the fragility of the Workers' Party (PT) in São Paulo and the necessity for alliances with the 'centrão' are key topics of discussion. The tight races in São José dos Campos and Curitiba reflect a rising struggle between right and left, culminating in a dynamic political landscape that will have direct impacts on projections for 2026.