Are Polls Trustworthy for 2024 Election?

As the nation gears up for the 2024 elections, skepticism around polling accuracy re-emerges from historical context. Both the 2016 and 2020 elections highlighted significant polling challenges, particularly noted in state-level results. While Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in 2016, she lost the election, pointing to the critical missteps of national polls concentrating overly on aggregate results instead of key states like Wisconsin and North Carolina, where margins were miscalculated. For the 2020 elections, the polls again misjudged Joe Biden's support, which raised questions on the methodology used by pollsters. Notably, in 2016, an underrepresentation of white Americans without college degrees skewed results. In response, alterations were made to polling techniques, including adjusting weight for education demographics. However, despite these changes, the 2020 polls still fell short due to factors such as a surge in voter turnout, which led to a less predictable electorate, making it difficult for pollsters to encapsulate the voting population accurately. As we approach 2024, questions linger: can we trust the polls this time? The truth is, definitive answers won’t surface until after the votes are counted. However, promisingly, the midterm polls from 2022 showed improved accuracy, sparking some hope for more reliable polling in the upcoming elections.