Syria's Power Transition: Insights from Frank Gardner

In recent hours, pivotal meetings among foreign ministers from Turkey, Russia, and Iran took place, amid a rapidly evolving situation on the ground in Syria. As rebel forces, led by Abu Muhammad Jolani of HTS, have advanced towards the capital, concerns grow over the potential for a chaotic power transition. The Syrian army's retreat, markings of defection, and the disintegration of Bashar Al Assad's regime reinforce the urgency of this moment. International actors are closely observing, with significant emphasis placed on how HTS manages the transition and their treatment of minority groups. Unlike previous transitions where terror groups retained influence, there's trepidation over a repeat post-afghan scenario. The rise of radical elements could lead to a resurgence of ISIS, echoing fears seen in unstable nations like Libya. Additionally, the Iranian embassy’s damage signals shifting sentiments toward Iran's maladaptive influence in Syria, previously viewed as a puppet state. Turkey, supporting the Islamist rebels, holds a bear's paw over the future of Syria with implications that could further affect the Kurdish regions. Meanwhile, the potential resurgence of ISIS is coupled with a fierce competition for governance among diverse groups within Syria. The dire humanitarian conditions bring further urgency to this tense moment in Syrian history, begging the question of whether this moment could form the basis of a stable future or descend into violence and chaos once more.